Natural Gas Update March 4,2026

March 4, 2026

Henry Hub (HH) next day cash traded $2.990 in the late morning Tuesday versus April NG spot futures trading $3.134. Thus the cash fell to a discount of near 14.5 cents to the spot futures, versus Monday when the HH cash held a small 3 cent premium and Friday  when the premium was 13 to 17 cents. The futures flipping to a premium is clearly a reflection of the worries over global LNG supply going forward ---given primarily the Qatari force majeure announcement heard Monday and the resultant large jump in TTF and JKM futures prices --with the US seen as a possible  alternate source for LNG. 

Comments seen Tuesday regarding NG futures values indicated some skepticism about further upside for futures prices.  “We are in a geopolitical conflict, which can move prices for a while. Eventually, however, the true fundamentals draw the price charts. The front end of the NG curve may be living on borrowed time , the analyst added. " Another analyst added :"While a colder mid-to-late March and Iran war risks may align with supportive technicals to drive short-term upside, the medium-term fundamental picture remains weak."

An LNG tanker initially headed for Europe has reversed course and is now sailing toward Asia as global natural gas prices surge, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.  The vessel is the first known example of a tanker diverting from Europe to Asia during the current price spike, the firm said. (turkiyetoday.com) No LNG-laden carrier has crossed the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, according to energy markets tracker Vortexa, and only a few empty vessels are available to load supplies in Qatar and the UAE.  (agbi.com) Qatar LNG normally sees more than 80% of its shipments going to Asia.

In LN/NG options trading on the CME Tuesday, the October $3.00/$2.25 put spread traded in a 1x2 ratio at a cost of 11.2 cents. The October $3.00 puts went 21.0 cents in a separate trade with 0.23 delta futures buys at $3.69. The September $3.00/$2.50 put spread traded in a 1x2 ratio costing 5.1 cents. These September and October put options saw their open interest rise. The October January  CSO -$0.75 call traded 2.7 and 2.8 cents 750 contracts each. These trades closed out positions. The October January futures spread settled Tuesday at - $1.368.

TTF options traded on the CME Tuesday. Notably the April Euro 40 put traded at a cost of 4.125 Euro with 0.25 delta April futures buys at Euro 55.25. April TTF futures settled Tuesday at Euro 54.290. Today, the spot April TTF futures are trading near Euro 47. Also on Tuesday,  the October, November and December Euro 30 puts traded Euro 2.55 with 0.14 futures bought in the strip at Euro 49.00. The October through December TTF strip settled Tuesday at Euro 45.83.  

Natural gas futures open interest on the CME rose by 18,959 contracts in Tuesday's activity. We see this as more new shorts than longs. The contract months that saw increases were April, May, June, October, and December 2026 through February 2027.

Technically, momentum is positive basis the DC chart for NG futures, but the price pattern of the past few sessions suggest more so that a trading range has been established. Support for the spot NG futures is seen at the overnight low at 2.910-2.912 and then at 2.818-2.826. Resistance comes in at 3.070-3.076, which are the highs from Monday and today. Above that resistance comes in at 3.130-3.135.