Natural Gas Update March 6,2026

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 12.6 cents at $3.129
NG futures are higher today, boosted by a supportive EIA storage number yesterday and an increase in NG power burn demand. A boost in some heating demand in the back end of the weather forecast is likely also supportive.

After a period of above normal temperatures in much of the US in the 6-10 day forecast, the 8 to 14 day period shows temperatures falling below normal in much of the eastern half of the US. (NOAA)

The EIA gas storage data issued Thursday was slightly bullish as the draw of 132 BCF beat news wire forecasts by 7 BCF. A rebound in NG power burns for heating demand was seen as a catalyst for the better EIA number. Total storage fell to 1.886 TCF, which is -43 BCF (-2.23%) versus the 5 year average, but +115 BCF (+6.49%) versus last year's storage level.

This latest week is also seen having had stronger gas power burns as a percentage of the total fuel demand. Celsius Energy says that the natural gas powerburn has averaged 36.9% of the powerstack. This is up +2.1% vs the same week last year, the most of any fuel component. This is a change from the past 6-12 months when the gas share often lagged the most of any fuel, Celsius adds.

In the LN/NG options on Thursday, the October November minus 15 cent call was sold against buying of the minus 50 cent put. The cost to the buyer was 1 and 2 cents. These were new positions as per CME open interest data. The October November futures spread settled minus 29.9 cents. 2,000 contracts of the January $10 calls traded 19.25 cents. The November $4 call was sold against buying of the December $5 call at a cots of 1.75 cents. With the call spread, there were delta futures trades as well with 0.43 delta November futures bought at $3.86 and 0.53 delta December futures sold at $4.58.

Notable from Thursday's settlements in NG futures was the strength in the December through February strip. Those contracts settled higher by 19.5 to 24.3 cents, while the spot April futures rose by (only) 8.6 cents. NGI commentary suggests that LNG demand possible next winter may have sparked the settlement increases.

Technically the NG spot futures remain in the range seen the past 2 1/2 weeks. Momentum remains positive basis the DC NG chart. Resistance  at 3.130-3.135 has been tested today with a high of 3.143. Next resistance above is seen at 3.188-3.190. Support lies at 2.973-2.975 and then at 2.910-2.912.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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