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- Natural Gas Update March 9,2026
March 12, 2026
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 12.4 cents at $3.310
NG futures have also gapped up over the weekend as the Iran conflict has given this commodity a boost as well.
US weather demand though is seen low in the coming days as we enter the shoulder season, but set to rise thereafter. NatGasWeather sees demand as low to very low in the day 1 through 8 period. Days 9 trough 13 are seen as having moderate to high demand. Then days 14 and 15 show low demand. But, the NOAA raised their HDD count to above normal for both the 6-10 day and 11-14 day periods at 98.48 (18 above) and 64.85 (4.22) above, respectively.
The TTF European gas futures have gapped up this morning on the back of the ongoing tension/disruptions in the Mideast. The spot futures gap goes from Friday's high of Euro 53.835 to today's low of 59.545. Technically, the spot futures are trading above the DC chart's upper bollinger which lies near 58 Euros. The contract is not overbought basis the DC chart's momentum indicator. Today's high of Euro 69.500 was the highest spot futures price seen since early January 2023.
Lower 48 states dry gas production was estimated up at 114.16 BCF/d yesterday compared to a 30-day average of 113.69 BCF/d, BNEF data shows.
Money managers did not change their positioning in NG futures/options on the CME in the week ended Tuesday March 3. They remained net short a total of 75,910 contracts.
WSJ commentary regarding NG pricing reads as follows:" Futures prices for autumn gas deliveries suggest that traders expect adequate inventories and relatively low prices for the power-generation and heating fuel to persist through summer." The October 2026 January 2027 spread has widened the past 2 days to its greatest value for the January contract versus the October. Commentary seen suggests that this is more about concerns of an increase in LNG export demand come next winter.
The gap created over the weekend in NG futures lies from 3.280 to 3.286. Support below is seen at 3.201-3.202 and then at 3.099-3.100. Resistance lies at 3.436-3.442 and then at the overnight high at 3.490-3.494. NG futures have positive momentum that it not yet overbought basis the DC and April daily charts. The April daily chart though is seeing its upper bollinger band being tested today. The band lies at 3.320.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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