Natural Gas Update November 10,2025

Overview

Natural Gas --NG is up 5.7 cents at $4.372
NG is up, having risen overnight to a fresh high for the recent rally, boosted by a colder weather forecast and strong LNG export feed gas demand. US gas production remains strong.

LNG terminal feedgas is today estimated .081 BCF/d  lower at 18.02 BCF/d, having risen by 0.445 BCF/d on Sunday to a record 18.10 BCF/d, amid higher activity at Plaquemines. (Market News)

Over the weekend, weather forecasts added some demand, especially in the 5 to 13 day period, as per NatGasWeather. And NatGasWeather adds that the forecast for the first 2 weeks of December shows cooler air in to the Northern US. But, they also add that next weekend will see demand return to a warmer than normal pattern.

Bloomberg data estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 111.04 BCF/d, down from the previous day of 111.79 BCF/d.

Celsius Energy points out that the natural gas portion of power generation has declined dramatically year on year. Of the six major components of the power stack, gas is the only one that has seen a year-over-year decline, down a huge -7.8% vs 2024 over the past week. This is due to gains by coal (+1.5%), solar (+2.8%), & wind (+2.3%), nuclear (+1.0%) among others. Celsius Energy suggests that if the pattern of a declining gas portion of electrical generation were to continue that it may cap upward price potential this winter.

The natural gas rig count rose by 3 units in Friday's Baker Hughes report.

In the NG/LN options market on Friday, the January and February $13/$14/$15 call butterflies traded actively at a price of 0.15 cents. In the December January 1 month Calendar Spread Option (CSO), 3,000 contracts of the -25 cent put was purchased against selling of the -15 cent call for a cost of 0.8 cents. Additionally, in the December January 1 month CSO, 5,000 contracts of the -25 cent/-15 cent call spread traded 4.3 cents. The December January one month futures spread settled -22.4 cents Friday; today, the spread rose as high as -19.0 cents. In the March April 1 month CSO, the $1.00/$2.00 call spread traded 3.9 cents. Open interest in the December put options rose by a total of 16,294 contracts. Specifically, in the December put options, the $4.10/$3.80 put spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio for a cost of 3.6 cents. Similarly, in the January put options, the $4.35/$4.00 put spread traded actively in a 1 by 2 ratio for a cost of 0.6 cents.

Technically, basis the DC chart, the RSI remains over 70--indicating an overbought condition and the stochastic momentum indicator is trying to turn negative from an overbought condition. One colleague terms the current price as seeing "overvaluations widen". Resistance to the upside is seen at 4.471-4.476 and then at the overnight high at 4.509-4.518. Support below lies at 4.328-4.334 and then at 4.268.

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