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- Natural Gas Update November 12,2025
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November 12, 2025
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 2.0 cents at $4.545
NG futures are lower today as some suggest that the rally seen Tuesday was overdone. Technical indicators suggest such. Production remains strong.
US domestic natural gas production was yesterday holding strong at 111.57 BCF/d compared to an average of 111.08 BCF/d so far this month, according to Bloomberg data.
Tuesday's rally was said to have been a result of a shift in weather forecasts and the record LNG feed gas demand. Forecaster Vaisala said Tuesday that the midday update to the Global Forecast System weather model shifted colder in the North Rockies and in the Northeast for November 14-18. Also, forecasts moved colder in the central US for November 21-25. (Barchart) The NOAA shows temperatures in the Eastern half of the US will be above average in the Nov. 19 thru 25 period. Commentary seen on WSJ says with regard to current weather that : " Residential and commercial demand eased as the Midwest and midcontinent warmed slightly, while fading chill in the southeast lowered power-sector demand, Gelber & Associates says in a note. "Price is higher, but the balance loosened as space-heating moderated and burns cooled even as export pull stayed strong," the firm adds.
LNG terminal feedgas is today estimated 0.101 BCF/d lower at 18.21 BCF/d compared to an average of 17.52 BCF/d so far this month. (Market News) A Reuters analyst said:" Traders expect rising exports to clear excess inventories before the end of winter 2025/26."
Much is being made of the fact that Tuesday's settlement for the spot NG futures ($4.565) was the highest since late December 2022. We only wish to add that on December 2,2022 the EIA storage inventories stood at 3.462 TCF. Last week's inventory level was 3.915 TCF; the prospect in our view is for beginning December gas storage to be at best 3.750 TCF.
Comments seen re the sharp rally seen Tuesday include : " Defying gravity"..."the price run-up was too fast, one trader said, adding "It's got to stop at that $4.60 level, and in an overreaction you might get that."..."thinking (NG price) doesn’t sustain up here."
Technically the DC chart shows the stochastic momentum indicator as overbought and the RSI continuing to show a reading over 70 also suggesting the contract is overbought. The volume traded in NG futures on the CME on Tuesday was very heavy at 694,758 contracts lending some credence to a top in place. There is currently a double top on the DC chart from yesterday/today at 4.581 / 4.582. Above that resistance comes in at 4.653-4.660. Support lies at 4.419-4.420 and then at 4.351-4.355. The weekly chart upper bollinger band is being tested. The band lies at the $4.52 area.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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