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- Natural Gas Update November 13,2025
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November 13, 2025
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 0.9 cents at $4.542
NG futures are up slightly now, after trading lower overnight as the weather is seen as not so strong as to increase demand solidly enough.
NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "A colder trending weather system is expected into the Great Lakes and Northeast early next week with lows of 10s-30s for a modest bump in national demand, but not strong with most of the rest of the U.S. still relatively comfortable," the forecaster says. Another comment re the weather says that milder temperatures will dominate over the next 2 weeks following the Arctic blast that hit much of the US the past 2-3 days. As per the NOAA, Lower 48 temperatures are forecast above normal into the weekend but expected to fall from a peak around Nov. 15 and back near normal next week. NOAA 6-14 day charts still show below normal in the west but above normal in eastern areas.
The EIA raised their NG price forecasts for 2025 ( by 5 cents to $3.47) and 2026 (+8 cents to 4.02) as they see LNG exports increasing, while production growth is seen staying flat. But, they raised their production estimates from last month. NG output is seen at 107.7 BCF/d, up 0.6 BCF/d from last month's estimate, while the 2026 average output is seen at 107.8 BCF/d, up 0.4 BCF/d from the October estimate. The EIA lowered their October 2025 End Of Season (EOS) inventory estimate to 3.950 from October's estimate of 3.978 TCF, but raised their March 2026 EOS inventory estimate to 2.000 TCF --from 1.990 seen in October.
US domestic natural gas production was yesterday holding strong at 111.46 BCF/d compared to an average of 111.1 BCF/d so far this month, according to BNEF.
A Reuters analyst writes how 6 US states have turned to using more coal for power generation as gas prices have risen. These six key states have roughly equal-sized generation shares from coal and gas within their electricity mixes, and so have the capability to replace one fuel with the other whenever market conditions dictate. Additional coal-for-gas switching is likely in areas where utilities are under pressure to keep power bills in check even as demand rises. U.S. coal prices this year have averaged around 20% less than gas prices and have risen only 7% from 2024's average, data from LSEG shows, while gas prices are up 44% from a year ago. Total U.S. coal-fired electricity production through the opening seven months of the year increased by around 16% from the year before, Ember data shows. Over the same period, U.S. gas-fired generation declined by around 4%, in response to some of the cost-saving efforts underway at several utilities. But the "Key 6" states increased coal usage by 26% so far in 2025, while their collective gas use has dropped by 9%, Ember data shows.
Chevron’s CEO has said the LNG market will be oversupplied for ‘a period of time’ and sees LNG prices ‘pressured’ due to high supply. (Market News)
Notable from Wednesday's settlements in NG futures is the fact that the December contract settled down 3.2 cents and January settled down 2.0 cents, while the strip from February to October settled anywhere from +0.3 to 1.0 cents higher. We see this as 1) profit taking and (2) a possible re-evaluation of the value of the 2 front months relative to the rest of the strip.
Technically the stochastic momentum indicator basis the DC chart is neutral at an overbought level, while the RSI indicator continues to register a reading over 70, which signals an overbought condition. Resistance lies at the double top from Tuesday/Wednesday at 4.581/4.582 and then at 4.653-4.660 from data from the December daily chart. Support lies at the prior highs at 4.419-4.420 and then at 4.363-4.369.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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