Natural Gas Update November 14,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 17.5 cents at $4.471
NG futures are lower as the market seems to have gotten ahead of itself with yesterday's rally as weather demand has been reduced in overnight forecasts. 

Thursday's rise to the highest spot futures price seen since late December of 2022 was attributed partially to colder weather forecasts---with some market commentary citing "mounting expectations for December heating demand. Also aiding the rally was the strong LNG export demand. We also suspect some short covering occurred--given open interest data seen for the December futures. There may have also been some support from a news story regarding a compressor station issue in the Permian Basin that was seen reducing supply, that was later found out to be a small amount for a limited time.

Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted cooler in the western half of the US in the November 18-22 period and turned colder for November 23-27.  Yet, some of the weather euphoria may be a bit ill-placed. Celsius Energy shows that GWDD's will be below the 5 year average from November 20 and possibly lasting through the end of the month, they say. Another market analyst suggested "current prices appear to embed an outsized risk premium for cold weather and potential supply disruptions." One trader added that the market "is trying to put in a little top here."
 
The EIA gas storage data due out this morning at 10:30 AM (EST) is seen as a build of 34 BCF as per news wire estimates. This compares to last year's build of 45 BCF and the 5 year average build of 35 BCF. This is likely the last injection for the season, as per many comments seen.

NG futures open interest data from the CME from Thursday's trading shows an increase of 12,992 contracts, even as December open interest fell by nearly 14,000 contracts. The December decrease is likely mostly a function of short covering, we believe. The increase seen in the January, March and April months we take to be mostly new length.

Technically NG has momentum basis the stochastic indicator that is neutral, although it remains at an overbought area. The RSI indicator has fallen just below 70 on the back of the steep overnight drop in NG pricing. The past 3 highs at 4.581-4.582 and 4.688 provide current resistance. Support comes in at 4.419-4.420 and then at 4.363-4.369.

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