Natural Gas Update November 18,2025

Overview

Natural Gas---Dec NG is down 2.7 cents at $4.334
NG futures are lower, continuing to be pressured by a warmer forecast for the coming week and by the ample amount of gas in storage. A slight dip in feedgas volume may also be weighing on prices.

Spot NG futures sold off Monday as weather forecasts remain mild. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through December 2, which should limit heating demand. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast early in the Nov. 22-26 period for the eastern half of the US, particularly in the Midwest and South. Readings are closer to normal in the Northeast for the period, as per weather forecaster Vaisala. Celsius Energy added that computer models backed away from a late November & early December arctic outbreak with Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) now expected to be below average through the 15-day period at 5 year lows.

LSEG data shows November US natural gas production averaging 109.3 BCF/d so far, up from 107.3 BCF/d in October and above the record seen in August of 108.3 BCF/d. BNEF estimated Monday's lower 48 dry gas production at 111.0 BCF/d. This compares to their November average so far of 110.1 BCF/d. 

LSEG says that the feedgas volume in November has averaged 17.9 BCF/d so far, up from October's record of 16.6 BCF/d.  Saturday 11/15 saw the feed gas volume setting a daily record of 18.6 BCF/d. (Reuters) Today's feedgas volume has dipped to 17.50 BCF/d, down 0.589 BCF from yesterday. The previous week's average was 18.26 BCF/d.  (Market News)

Early estimates we are seeing for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a draw of 12 to 18 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 3 BCF and the 5 year average build for the period of 12 BCF.

The January LN put option open interest rose by 20,206 contracts in Monday's activity. Notable increases were seen in the $4.50 and $4.25 strikes. The $4.50/$4.25 put spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio with the buyer of the $4.50 put collecting 7.7 cents with delta futures sales at $4.66.  The February March one month CSO puts traded actively in the +35 cent and +25 cent strikes. The spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio with the buyer of the +35 cent put collecting 1.2 cents. The February/March futures spread settled Monday at +44.7 cents.

Monday's NG spot futures selloff was the largest one day dollar decline since Monday, July 21, 2025.  Technically, the DC NG futures chart shows momentum having turned downward from an overbought condition. Support for the spot futures comes in at 4.268-4.276, which has been tested today with a low of 4.267. Below that support lies at 4.183-4.192. Resistance lies at 4.419-4.420 and then at 4.509-4.518.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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