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- Natural Gas Update November 21,2025
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November 21, 2025
Overview
Natural Gas--January NG is up 3.4 cents at $4.701
NG futures are higher today with the prospect for colder weather into the Thanksgiving weekend after a warm pattern in the coming days. Ample gas in storage though tempered the rally yesterday, despite the first withdrawal of the season.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain warmer than normal through November 26 before turning colder than normal from November 28 to December 5. (Reuters)
The polar vortex is forecast to weaken unusually early, and that could lead to more persistent cold weather in at least parts of the U.S. in December. This could be the earliest such event in at least 27 years. Despite this overall scenario, the forecast ahead for December may be tricky. "I expect the weather models to struggle correctly simulating how it evolves and how it will impact our weather,", as per an MIT scientist. "The key for U.S. weather impacts is that the SSW event must end up altering the Pacific jet stream...and that takes time.", said a professor of weather at the Univ. of Oklahoma. "The U.S. usually has a delay — sometimes 2 to 4 weeks (after the polar vortex weakening) — in the effects, particularly the central and eastern U.S.," he added. How long into December or the rest of winter this colder pattern may last also remains unclear, as per the Weather Channel's commentary.
The EIA gas storage data seen Thursday showed a draw of 14 BCF, that was right in line with expectations. This leaves total storage at 3.946 TCF, which is +146 BCF/ +3.84 % versus the 5 year average, but -23 BCF/-0.58% versus last year's level.
On Thursday, LSEG forecasted demand for NG, including exports, will be 118.1 BCF/d this week and next. This is up 3.0 BCF/d total from the forecast seen the day before.
The European TTF gas futures have fallen today to the lowest spot price seen since May 16, 2024 on the back of the possible prospect for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict. The low today is Euro/Mwh 30.125 (=$10.18/MMBtu). Support comes in at Euro 29.15-29.355 level from data on the TTF DC chart from mid-May 2024. Momentum is turning downward on this selloff. One possible positive element technically for the TTF contract is the testing of the lower bollinger band that lies at 30.40.
Technically NG futures have negative momentum, even as prices remain well off the low seen earlier this week. Resistance for the January futures comes in at the highs of the prior 2 sessions at 4.800-4.806 and then at the recent high at 4.881. Support is seen at 4.601-4.607 and then lightly at 4.554.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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