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- Natural Gas Update November 24,2025
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November 25, 2025
Overview
Natural Gas--January NG is down 10.3 cents at $4.640
January NG futures are down, despite a colder forecast for late November into early December and strong feedgas demand. The near term weather though is on the warm side. Also this week's EIA gas storage number is seen as a small build.
LNG feedgas demand continues to hover just below record highs at 18.5 BCF/d today, up +4.5 BCF/d vs last year. However, the total natural gas supply (production + imports), at 114.6 BCF/d, is also up between +4-5 BCF/d, neatly offsetting the greater LNG feed gas demand, as per Celsius Energy commentary.
Heading to the December futures expiration tomorrow, the front month spread has narrowed in conjunction with a narrower cash/spot futures differential. The front month NG spread has narrowed to as high as -12.3/-12.5 cents in the past 2 sessions; this is versus a settlement of -23.2 cents seen 1 week ago. On Friday, Henry Hub next day cash traded $4.210, which was 21 cents higher than seen Thursday, This was versus December futures printing near $4.62. The cash spot futures differential thus narrowed to roughly 41 cents --from the 53.5 / 59 cents differential seen Thursday and that of $1.00 seen on the prior Friday.
Going forward, the expectations for end of season (March EOS) gas inventories in storage will carry greater weight. Celsius Energy is forecasting EOS storage at 1.766 TCF. The EIA this month said they see EOS at 2.000 TCF. The Desk forecasts EOS at 1.842 TCF. As we enter the winter withdrawal season, these March EOS estimates will hold greater weight in the markets assessment of futures pricing, as will each day's weather outlook.
Celsius Energy is forecasting a build of 8 BCF in this week's EIA storage data. This would be the worst gas storage number seen in the past 6 years. In 2023 there was a build of 3 BCF. The best storage number seen since 2020 occurred in 2022 with a draw of 80 BCF. This week's EIA gas storage data will be released one day early on Wednesday Nov. 26 at Noon due to the Thursday Thanksgiving holiday.
The December LN/NG options expire today with open interest data from the CME showing the nearby strike with the largest total open interest is in the $4.50 strike with nearly 67,000 contracts. This large amount of open interest may act as a magnet for the December futures settlement today. The December $4.25 strike has open interest totaling over 39,000 contracts.
The prospect for a solution to the Ukraine war has seen the European TTF gas futures fall to their lowest spot price since May 13, 2024. Support at Euro 29.15 from data from May 2024 was almost tested with today's low of Euro 29.20. Below this support is seen at Euro 27.900. The TTF spot futures are testing the contract's lower bollinger band on the DC chart today.
The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Friday showed an increase of 2 units.
Money managers shed 32,765 contracts of their net short position by covering shorts in the period from September 23 to October 7. Their total net short position thus stood at 42,487 contracts.
Technically, momentum is negative and the prior 3 highs for the January futures have created a bit of a wall of resistance lying between 4.800 and 4.806. Nearby support comes in at 4.554.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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