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- Natural Gas Update November 6, 2025
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November 6, 2025
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 5.9 cents at 4.291
NG futures are higher, but are having their 2nd inside trading day in a row. The market seems buffeted by strong LNG demand and cooler weather upcoming versus strong production and ample storage-even as today's EIA gas storage data will shrink the surplus to the 5 year average.
On Wednesday, LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.0 BCF/d so far in November, up from 107.0 BCF/d in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 BCF/d in August. Today's gas output, as per Bloomberg data, is 110.07 BCF/d, versus the 30 day average of 109.1 BCF/d.
EIA gas storage estimates for today's data are calling for a build of 31 to 33 BCF, as per news wire surveys. This compares to last year's build of 68 BCF and the 5 year average build of 42 BCF.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.4 BCF/d so far in November, up from a record 16.6 BCF/d in October. (Reuters)
Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated 1.41 BCF/d higher today at 79.54 BCF/d compared with the 30-day average of 74.5 BCF/d and five-year seasonal average around 70.2 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows.
The next day Henry Hub cash price continued Wednesday to trade at a large discount to the front month December futures. Cash was quoted $3.550/$3.630 mid-morning versus December futures printing $4.321. The differential of 69 to 77 cents was slightly less than the 83 cents differential seen Monday, but wider than the 41 to 51 cents one seen last Thursday. The November /December futures spread settled on expiration at -43.9 cents, which was the narrowest the spread had been in 6 1/2 months.
Above average winter temperatures in large parts of China may curb the nation’s LNG imports further: Bloomberg. The JKM Asian futures gas contract has been in a narrow sideways trading pattern over the last 3 months, with highs near $11.550 and lows near $10.915 /MMBtu during that time.
TTF European gas futures are slightly lower with market commentary citing strong LNG imports. "The market shrugged off concerns that lower-than-expected wind power generation would boost demand for natural gas, instead focusing on the rising availability of supply," ANZ analysts say. The latest positioning data shows that investment funds cut their net long in TTF by 24.8TWh over the last week to 21.4TWh, the smallest net long held since March 2024. In fact, the investment fund gross short stands at a record high of a little more than 393TWh, despite the European balance remaining vulnerable in the 2025/26 winter, with storage 83% full vs. a five-year average of 92%. "The large gross short does leave some positioning risk in the market, particularly if there are any surprises through the heating season," ING analysts say. (WSJ) Here, as in the JKM market, the TTF futures have a mostly sideways pattern to price action seen over the past 3 months.
Global data centre electricity demand is expected to almost double by 2030, reaching about 1,587 TWh, up from 860 TWh in 2025, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The increase will be fueled by AI, crypto mining and cloud computing demand. (S&P Global Commodity Insights)
Technically, momentum on the NG DC chart looks to be cresting and is overbought. Resistance is seen at the high of 2 days ago at 4.396 and then at 4.444-4.447. Support comes in at 4.183-4.186.
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Disclaimer
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