Natural Gas Update October 13,2025

Liquidity Energy, LLC

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 2.8 cents at $3.078
NG futures are lower as near term weather demand remains weak --even as LNG feed gas volume for export is at a record level.

NatGasWeather writes that weekend weather trends remained mostly bearish as some demand was lost. They add that most of the long-range weather forecasts favor warmer than normal temperatures regaining ground over 2/3 of the U.S. in the 8 to 15 day period.

Celsius Energy data showed that as per Sunday's early-cycle pipeline data, flows to the Cove Point export facility will have returned from maintenance on schedule. This will drive total LNG feedgas demand to 17.4 BCF/d, which is a new record high & is up 3.7 BCF/d vs 2024. Expect flows to exceed 18 BCF/d for the first time over the next 4-6 weeks, if not sooner, Celsius commentary adds.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count rose by 2 units. The Waha/Permian gas price has been in negative territory for several days in a row now, having recently reached a record low. NGI’s Waha daily price on Thursday (Oct. 9) averaged negative $1.200/MMBtu. This makes it the 21st trading day in a row with Waha averaging below zero. Prior to this record, the longest stretch of negative Waha prices was the 28 trading days between July 26 and Sept. 11, 2024, according to NGI’s Daily Historical Data. The negative pricing in recent weeks, including a record low of negative $8.790 on Oct. 2, highlights the impact that the Permian Basin’s high associated gas production has on prices when maintenance occurs on the existing pipeline system, as per NGI commentary. We ask :" Will this lead to further drops in the Permian rig count and hence gas production?"

Notably seen in Friday's options activity was the $2.75/$2.50 put spread in November done in a 1 by 2 ratio for a cost of 1.7 cents with delta November futures bought at $3.14. Also, seen was an initiating position in the September/October one month minus 10 cent call of which 2,500 contracts were bought at 2.5 cents; the underlying September/October 2026 spread settled below that at minus 21.5 cents. In the January February one month call spread, the 50 cent/75 cents/$1.00 call butterfly was bought at a cost of 0.9 cents. The January February spread settled Friday at 19.2 cents. Additionally, in the January February one month CSO, the 25 cent 75 cent call spread traded for a cost of 5.0 cents. Open interest in the Jan/Feb 25 cent and 75 cent calls declined in CME data.

Comments heard regarding natural gas sentiment include: " Weather is mild so it’s up to production now. "  "While LNG exports are at record highs, investor focus will turn increasingly to the near-term temperature outlook as heating demand should be ramping up. However, mild conditions are expected to dominate into at least the final week of October with forecast daily Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) consistently below-avg. While natural gas should be due for a bounce, this warmth could continue to apply downside pressure."

NG spot futures are at their lowest since the October contract expiration almost 3 weeks ago. The spot futures are into the gap created then which goes down to 2.944. Momentum remains negative basis the DC chart. Support at 3.021-3.023 was almost tested with today's low being 3.029. Below that support is seen at 2.960-2.964. Resistance lies at the overnight high at 3.130-3.138 and then at 3.165-3.168.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC

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