Natural Gas Update October 15,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 5.0 cents at $2.978
NG continues to fall, today testing $3.00.  A "muted weather outlook" remains the culprit for the slide.

On Tuesday, the Commodity Weather Group reported that above-normal temperatures are expected across most of the eastern half of the US for October 19-23.

The EIA storage data due out tomorrow, at its normal hour, is seen as a build of 86 BCF, as per NGI's model. That compares to last year's build of 77 BCF and the 5 year average build of 83 BCF.  NGI says that the larger than normal injection is due the Lower 48 natural gas burn for power generation having been down 7.8% for the week, thanks to the resumption of more normal temperatures from the late gasp of summer. A nearly 30% week/week increase in wind generation contributed as well, and it more than made up for a 5% decline in solar output for the week.

The weakness in NG futures has come even as production in October has fallen.  LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states stood at 106.5 BCF/d so far in October, down from 107.4 BCF/d in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 BCF/d in August.

Technically, momentum remains negative as the DC chart shows a stepladder down pattern over the past week. Support at 2.960-2.964 has been tested this morning with a low of 2.964. The DC gap down to 2.944 lies just below that. Below that support is seen at 2.911-2.916. Some resistance is seen at 3.061-3.062 with better resistance lying at 3.106-3.107.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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