Natural Gas Update October 17,2025

Overview

Natural Gas ---November NG is up 0.7 cents at $2.946
NG spot futures are near unchanged, although overnight they fell to their lowest DC chart based price since the October futures expiration on September 26th. Weak weather demand is still weighing on prices. Storage is seen as ample, which is also a negative. But, record LNG feed gas volumes are seen limiting the natural gas price fall somewhat.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 31. (Reuters)

The EIA gas storage data issued Thursday showed a build of 80 BCF--which was basically in line with the news wire survey forecasts of +78/+81 BCF. Total storage rose to 3.721 TCF, which is +26 BCF/+0.70% versus last year's level and +154 BCF/+4.32% versus the 5 year average. Celsius Energy projects that the final 3 weeks of injection season for natural gas storage will add a further 207 BCF, thus making for an EOS storage total of 3.928 TCF. The EIA in their Weekly Update of 2 days ago projects an EOS of 3.907, based on a 5 year average daily rate of injection of 8.9 BCF/d. The EIA says that the 5 year average EOS is 3.753 TCF.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 BCF/d so far in October, down from 107.4 BCF/d in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 BCF/d in August.

Bloomberg puts today's feedgas volume to LNG plants at 16.22 BCF/d versus a 30 day average of 15.68 BCF/d. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.4 BCF/d so far in October, up from 15.7 BCF/d in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 BCF/d in April. (Reuters) The export strength highlights that without this outlet, domestic prices might have fallen well below $2.80, as per a comment seen from tradingnews.com commentary. 

The next day Henry Hub cash versus futures differential widened Thursday by about 10 cents from Wednesday. Thursday's differential was seen at 23.8 to 28.8 cents, versus Wednesday's differential of 14.4/17.4 cents.

On Thursday in LN/NG options, the Feb $7.00/$8.50 one by two ratio call spread traded, with the $7.00 call buyer collecting 1 tick.  Also, 5,000 lots of the Jan Feb one month 25 cent / 50 cent CSO call spread in LN/NG options traded Thursday at a cost of 3.8 cents. CME open interest data shows the 25 cent call being an opening position for the most part, while the 50 cent call open interest fell. Additionally in the Jan Feb one month LN (NG options) CSO, the 10 cent/5 cent put spread traded 2 cents. The underlying Jan Feb 1 month futures spread settled Thursday at 18.0 cents.

Technically, the NG spot futures have filled the gap on the DC chart to 2.944. Support at 2.911-2.916 was pierced with a low overnight of 2.893. Below that support comes in at 2.869. Resistance is seen at 2.999-3.000 and then at 3.062-3.067.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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