Natural Gas Update October 23,2025

Overview

Natural Gas --November NG is down 3.9 cents at $3.411
NG futures are lower now as the near term weather remains only near normal and that is not seen as enough to sustain a solid rally. Cash prices have fallen back today from yesterday. The fall in prices comes despite the strength in crude prices and European TTF prices, as well as strong LNG feed gas volume. 

Today's LNG feed gas volume is up to a near record at 17.29 BCF/d, which is up from Wednesday's volume of 16.8 BCF/d. And the prospect is for further strength in LNG volumes in the coming weeks with the Golden Pass facility set to begin operations. The record U.S. LNG feedgas volume output per day was 17.3 BCF on April 9, 2025.

Next day cash Henry Hub prices have fallen back 12 cents today. The last trade seen now is at $3.35, down from a price of $3.470 seen yesterday at this hour.

“Near-normal weather is a break from a very mild three-month period, but cold air supply needed for substantially bullish outcomes remains scarce amid a Pacific flow-dominated pattern,” one analyst told Bloomberg in a note.  On Wednesday, forecasts shifted warmer across the U.S. early in the Nov. 1-5 period. This news caused NG futures to retreat, along with the prospect for an above average injection in the EIA storage data.

Profit taking is also cited in Wednesday's pullback in NG futures. This is evidenced by the drop in NG futures open interest on the CME, with notable declines in November, December and January. Also notable in NG futures from Wednesday's activity is the settlement for November being stronger than the rest of the winter strip. November was down 2.4 cents versus settlement, while the rest of the December through March strip was down between 2.8 and 4.9 cents. The November strength we see as being due to a few factors, among them the strength in next day cash, while the ample amount of gas in storage and prospect for just average weather makes the forward months not as desirable. The next day cash discount versus the spot futures differential narrowed Wednesday to 1.5 cents. This is versus the prior 2 sessions' differentials of minus 15 to 20 cents.

The EIA storage data due out today is seen as a build of 81 to 82 BCF as per news wire surveys. That compares to last year's build of 79 BCF and the 5 year average build of 77 BCF.

Technically momentum remains positive for the NG, basis the DC chart,  with resistance seen at the high at 3.585 from early October. Above that resistance is seen at 3.628-3.629. Support is seen at 3.355 and then at 3.293-3.296

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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