Natural Gas Update October 24,2025

Overview

Natural Gas ---November NG is down 1.8 cents at $3.326
Spot NG futures are lower, weighed down by the bearish EIA storage data seen yesterday and a mixed weather forecast with the East to see cold weather, while the rest of the US is set to see above normal temperatures.

Production remains stout at 108.45 BCF/d versus the 30 day average of 108.3, as per Bloomberg data. The production strength is being offset though by record LNG feed gas volume. Yesterday saw the LNG volume at a record 17.51 BCF/d. Today's LNG volume is 17.23 BCF/d.

The EIA gas storage data seen Thursday disappointed with a build of 87 BCF, which was 6 BCF more than the consensus forecasts. Total storage thus rose to 3.808 TCF, which is +162 BCF/+4.50% versus the 5 year average and +34 BCF/+0.90% versus last year's level.  The next 2 weeks data is seen adding 101 BCF, as per Celsius Energy analysis. The total in storage thus would rise to 3.909 TCF. This would be below last year's total (as of Nov.1) of 3.931 TCF .  

Reuters commentary says that the U.S. and Qatar can supply enough LNG to Europe to offset the Russian gas supply that will be lost when the EU's ban comes into effect in 2027. Energy Aspects believes the US may supply Europe with over 70% of LNG between 2026-2029.

On Thursday, 4,000 of the March April 2026 one month Calendar Spread Option (CSO)  25/50 cent call spreads traded 2.8 cents. Also in the March April 1 month CSO, 6,000 contracts of the -10 cent / -5 cent put spread traded 1.5 cents cost to the -5 cent put buyer. The -5 cent put was an initiating trade, while the -10 cent put position was being closed on the CME, as per open interest data. In the March April 2027 one month calendar spread options, 2,000 contracts of the $2.00 calls traded 19 cents. This was, as one might imagine, a position being initiated as per CME open interest data.

Technically, momentum remains positive for the NG on the DC chart basis, but the market has signaled this week an inability for the spot futures to remain over $3.50. We see resistance below that even at 3.425-3.430. Above that the recent highs of 3.504-3.507 provide resistance. Support at 3.293-3.296 has been pierced today with a low of 3.265. Below that support comes in at 3.210-3.217.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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