Natural Gas Update October 28,2025

Overview

Natural Gas ---December NG is down 13.2 cents at $3.865
NG futures are lower as moderating temperatures, ample storage and continued stout production weigh, despite recent record volume for LNG export.

LSEG said Monday that average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 107.0 BCF so far in October, versus the record high from August of 108.0 BCF/d. Yet, on October 14, LSEG said that output had averaged 106.5 BCF/d so far in October. On a daily basis, output has held near a three-week high of around 108.0 BCF/d over the past four days. That compares with a daily record high of 109.2 BCF/d on July 28. (Reuters)

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas hit an all-time high of 17.4 BCF/d on Sunday, topping the prior record of 17.3 BCF/d on Saturday, with flows to Venture Global's  Plaquemines plant in Louisiana at a record 3.9 BCF/d. (Reuters)

On Monday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 108.7 BCF/d this week to 109.4 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up a total of 1.8 BCF/d from those seen Friday.

The notion of ample gas in storage is underscored by NGI reporting that storage is on pace to rise to 3.925 TCF as of Nov. 1. They say that the average median Nov. 1 Lower 48 storage balance between 2010 and 2024 was 3.809 TCF.

OECD European natural gas demand is expected to contract by 8%--10% from 2024 to 2030, the IEA said Oct. 27. The vast majority of the expected demand drop is forecast to come from the power sector. Regardless of lower LNG prices, OECD Europe is expected to see a 25% dive in gas-to-power demand by 2030 compared to 2024, removing some 30 Billion Cubic meters ( 1.059 TCF)  of need, the IEA said. "This is largely driven by the rapid expansion of renewable power output, which is forecast to increase by more than 40% by 2030."  Additionally, plant closures will put downward pressure on industrial demand. (Platts)

The November LN options expire today. The $3.25 strike has a total open interest on the CME of over 46,000 contracts. The strikes in the put options from $3.10 to $3.30 have open interest of anywhere from 14,357 to 30,933 contracts. The $3.40 puts have 10,959 contracts open. 

Notable from Monday's settlements in NG futures is the November contract rising 13.8 cents, while the rest of the winter strip from December to March settled anywhere from down 2 ticks to up 9 ticks. This is likely due to the next day Henry Hub cash being near $3.40, thus keeping November futures near there, while the rest of the winter strip seems weighed down by ample storage and stout production, as well as a moderation in temperatures for the Nov 3 through 8 period, as per Celsius Energy reporting.

Technically, December NG futures has seen its momentum turn downward. Support is seen at 3.867-3.869, which was tested with today's low of 3.854. Below this support is seen at 3.827-3.830. There is a gap below from 3.829 to 3.748. Resistance is seen at 3.982-3.985, which is the overnight high. Resistance is then seen at 4.022-4.023.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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