Natural Gas Update October 29,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--December NG is down 7.3 cents at $3.794
NG futures are lower as weather demand remains seasonally overall weak and as LNG feedgas volumes have been lower the past 24 hours or more due to one plant's issues. Reuters commentary cited profit taking for some of the retreat in prices seen Tuesday. Today is the last trading day for the November NG futures.

Monday's feedgas volume fell to 15.2 BCF/d, down over 2 BCF/d from the recent record levels seen, due to a near total shutdown at the Cameron LNG plant in Louisiana. Tuesday's feedgas volume rose back to 16.6 BCF/d as the Cameron plant was back to 74% of capacity, as per Celsius Energy data.

Reuters commented as to a "softer" heating demand forecast Tuesday. LSEG reduced their 2 week HDD forecast to 207 from the 214 forecast previously seen Monday. Celsius Energy sees the next 4 week GWDD's as being -2% below the historical average, which they say will see temperature driven  gas demand "suppressed" relative to seasonal averages. "The weather remains near seasonal in terms of heating degree days for the front six days, but too warm for Nov. 3-11, NatGasWeather.com said Tuesday.  "Clearly, colder trends are going to be needed if weather patterns are to be considered cold/blue enough to satisfy." (WSJ)

The arbitrage window for US LNG cargoes to the Asia is showing early signs of improvement as weaker Atlantic prices and growing Asian winter demand narrow previously unfavorable trading margins, Platts said. Japan and South Korea are rebuilding inventories ahead of winter, while Chinese state buyers have returned to the spot market anticipating a modest industrial rebound. (investing.com)

The Henry Hub next day cash was strong versus the expiring November futures mid-morning Tuesday. The cash was seen quoted $3.43/$3.47, versus Nov futures printing near $3.35. Thus the futures were at a discount after having spent the last 4 weeks trading at a premium to the cash. Is this indicating only a temporary bit of strength for the cash price? Is this a function of longs in futures being liquidated ahead of expiration? Is this an overall reflection of a weaker NG futures market --given ample storage, strong gas production and a barely seasonal weather forecast--thus keeping demand muted ??? As a colleague suggested : "Temporary cash strength over next few days is due to a cold shot over next 2-3 days. But, the forward market is taking its cues from extended more zonal moderate temps."

Technically, the December NG futures have negative momentum as they have dropped into the gap seen on the daily chart that goes down to 3.748. The December futures have been rejected from pricing over $4.00 seen in the prior week. Below that, there is near term resistance at 3.894-3.900. Support below the gap lies at 3.737-3.738 and then at 3.700-3.704.

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