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- Natural Gas Update October 3,2025
Overview
Natural Gas- NG is down 9.9 cents at $3.343
Natural gas spot futures are lower again today as the weather does not suggest excessive heating demand. Also, profit taking/long liquidation was cited for the pullback seen Thursday. The pullback came despite a bullish EIA storage number.
“A comfortable pattern is expected over most of the US for the 10-15 day period,” NatGasWeather.com says in a report. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that after a brief cool spell, temperatures are expected to rise above normal in the middle of the US for October 12-16.
The EIA storage data came in under estimates. The build was 53 BCF, versus most estimates for a build of 64 to 68 BCF. Total storage rose to 3.561 TCF. This is +21 BCF/+0.59 % versus last year and +171 BCF/+5.04% versus the 5 year average. One commentary cited lower wind generation and a pickup in LNG export demand for the bullish EIA report.
Goldman Sachs has kept its forecast for Henry Hub gas prices unchanged, with November–December delivery contracts seen at $4.00 and 2026 prices seen at $4.60, the bank said in a note on Thursday. “We believe we are quickly approaching a period when the market’s focus will more sustainably shift towards 2026 tightness concerns,” the bank noted.
In NG futures' settlements Thursday, despite the bullish EIA number, the November spot futures settled lower, while the contracts in the rest of the winter strip from December to March settled higher--suggesting to us less concern over immediate supply versus the rest of the winter with LNG demand ramping up in some facilities in the coming months and the impending winter --versus the current sufficient gas in storage--evidenced by the still slight surplus that we have versus last year's storage level.
Technically, the mean reversion setup from Wednesday's close above the upper bollinger band on the DC chart was confirmed with Thursday's close back below the band. The band today lies at 3.503. Momentum is still positive and not quite overbought yet. Resistance above lies at 3.469-3.475. Support at 3.335-3.336 has been tested this morning with a low of 3.333. Below that support is seen at 3.293.
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