Natural Gas Update October 30,2025

Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is up 3.2 cents at 3.847
December NG is up, even as the weather outlook remains mild for this time of year. But, the feedgas demand rose yesterday back to near record level, which is tempering some of the weather bearishness. Today's EIA gas data is seen as "neutral".

Weather models have continued to trend milder for early-to-mid November, pushing forecast accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) back below the 5 year average, as per Celsius Energy data. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Wednesday that forecasts shifted to above-average in the West and Midcontinent for November 3-7, and turned warmer for most of the US for November 8-12. Yet, NGI commentas that "a chilly end to October and forecasts for more cold early next month bolstered natural gas buying in the Midwest and Northeast, boosting cash prices to seasonal highs this week."

Wednesday's feedgas volume for LNG export rose back to 17.15 BCF/d, near to the recent record of 17.3 BCF/d. Wednesday's volume was up 3.9 BCF/d versus last year. Celsius Energy cites the cooler weather along the Gulf Coast for boosting the feedgas volume, as less gas is needed to cool the plants and thus can be used purely for export.

The WSJ survey for the EIA gas storage data due out today is calling for a build of 73 BCF. This is versus last year's build of 79 BCF and the 5 year average build of 67 BCF. 

Global LNG demand is set to rebound as new supply entering the market is expected to push prices down and spur interest from price-sensitive buyers, trading executives at the Asia Gas Markets Conference said this week. One executive said that prices of $7-8 are needed to stimulate demand. The JKM Asian NG price settled at  $11.215 /MMBtu for December delivery, as per CME data. Markets like China, India and Southeast Asia have the potential to see demand recovery, said the director of trading portfolio optimization at Cheniere, with China and India having the potential to double imports in the next decade. Europe, which lost around 80 billion cubic meters (2.83 TCF) of gas demand since Russia's war in Ukraine, could also see some industrial gas use return as prices fall, as not all of the demand destruction is structural, he added.

Wood Mackenzie update reveals utilities have committed to twice as much new large load demand as generation is expected to be built. U.S. utility large load commitments have reached over 160 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to 22% of 2024 U.S. peak load, according to the analysis. Thus, Woodmac says that without immediate action, "Utilities expect that annual gigawatt additions will transition from a 23% compound annual growth rate before 2030 to negative 22% thereafter, highlighting the potential for this unprecedented demand surge to be front-loaded."   (woodmac.com)

The Golden Pass LNG plant is said to be targeting production by the end of this year. The plant in the Sabine Pass near Port Arthur,Texas will have a total capacity of "about" 2 BCF/d, as per their website.

On Wednesday, the December  NG came within 4 ticks of filling the downside gap to 3.748.  A similar gap in January NG was filled with Wednesday's low of 4.052--filling the prior gap that went down to 4.060. Similar gaps out to June NG were also filled in Wednesday's activity.

The expiring  November NG contract was the only month ahead of May 2026 in positive territory at settlement on Wednesday. It settled up 3.1 cents, while the rest of the winter strip was down between 0.9 cents for March to 5.2 cents for December. This underscores the continued belief of an amply supplied gas market with limited weather demand.

There is a rollover gap down to 3.405 on the NG DC chart from the November expiration. The technical picture is mixed. Momentum has turned positive on the DC chart due to the large bump in prices, as December becomes the spot contract. But, the contract is currently well above the DC chart's upper bollinger band that intersects at 3.720-3.725. Support lies at the gap are at 3.748-3.752 and then at 3.702-3.704. Resistance comes in at 3.894-3.895 and then at 3.947-3.950.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Energy Market Update

Ethanol Report

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC