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- Natural Gas Update October 6,2025
Natural Gas---NG is up 8.7 cents at $3.411
NG prices are up with U.S. production down, U.S. demand up and feedgas volume for LNG export running over the 30 day average. Also supportive is the strength in TTF prices, which have gapped higher as Qatari maritime operations have been suspended.
Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated 1.97 BCF/d higher today at 68.7 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows, to edge back above the five-year seasonal average.
U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated 0.44 BCF/d lower today at 107.6 BCF/d compared to an average of 108.1 BCF/d over the previous week, according to Bloomberg data.
LNG terminal feedgas is today estimated at 15.84 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows, compared to the 30-day average of 15.36 BCF/d. Cove Point supply remains at zero amid maintenance. Thus, when the Cove Point plant returns in about one week's time, LNG feedgas volume would rise to over 16 BCF, as Cove Point's facility has a daily liquification capacity of 0.75 BCF/d.
TTF prices in Europe have gapped higher today with Qatar suspending all maritime operations, due to a technical malfunction in the Global Positioning System (GPS). Additionally aiding TTF prices is the fact that EU gas storage stood at 82.75% of capacity as of October 4, down from 94.32% last year and at their lowest levels since 2021, data from industry lobby group Gas Infrastructure Europe showed. Europe will need to import up to 160 additional liquefied natural gas cargoes this winter due to lower storage and a decline in pipeline flows from Russia and Algeria, according to analysts and data, deepening its dependency on U.S. gas. By the end of the current winter in March 2026, storage volumes could drop to a seven-year low of 29% of capacity, according to Kpler. (Reuters)
UBS sees U.S. LNG exports exceeding 18 BCF/d by late 2026, while reduced associated gas output and potential winter volatility could lift prices above $4.20 in 2026. According to UBS strategists, the U.S. natural gas market is transitioning from domestic oversupply to export-driven tightening. UBS warned that total U.S. gas output could stagnate as lower oil drilling reduces associated gas production. Assuming normal temperatures, UBS said it maintains a “constructive” outlook and continues to favor longer-dated contracts, including those for delivery in summer 2026. “We continue to believe a higher price is required to secure the supply growth needed to accommodate greater US natural gas exports in 2025 and 2026”. (Trading News.com / Investing.com)
The Baker Hughes natural gas rig count issued Friday showed an increase of 1 unit.
Momentum remains positive for the NG basis the DC chart, although it is getting near overbought and seems poised to be cresting. The current spot NG futures price is well off the overnight high of 3.485, while on the flip side, the low for the session of 3.296 was seen on the opening last night with the price quickly shooting up to above 3.33. Resistance lies at the session high at 3.485-3.494. Support lies at the session low at 3.293-3.296.
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