Natural Gas Update September 10,2025

Overview

Natural Gas- NG is down 9.7 cents
NG futures are lower this morning as Gas Weighted Degree Days (a measure of demand) have been slight of late and tomorrow's EIA gas storage data is seen increasing the surplus to the 5 year average. Additionally, yesterday's EIA STEO saw their forecasts for prices reduced for this year and next and this year's production forecast increased. Cooler weather forecasts are also seen weighing on prices, as per Market News wire commentary. 

The GWDD's for yesterday and today have been the lowest for the past 6 years. (Celsius Energy)

The EIA gas storage to be released tomorrow is seen increasing the 5 year surplus by 14 to 18 BCF. Estimates are for a build of 70 to 74 BCF. The 5 year average build is 56 BCF.

The EIA, in its monthly Short term Energy Outlook (STEO) issued Tuesday, said that 2026 U.S. NG production will be flat versus 2025. U.S. NG production in 2026 is seen at 106.0 BCF/d versus 2025 output of 106.6 BCF/d. The forecast for this year was raised by 0.2 BCF/d, while that for next year was lowered by 0.1 BCF/d versus the August STEO. The U.S. gas demand figures were little changed versus those seen last month. NG demand in 2025 is seen at 91.5 BCF/d, up 0.1 BCF/d and 2026 demand is seen at 91.4 BCF/d, up 0.2 BCF/d versus last month's estimate. The NG price in the U.S. is seen averaging $3.52 this year, which is down 9 cents versus last month's forecast. The forecast for 2026 of $4.28 is down 6 cents from the August STEO. The EIA wrote : " We expect the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from an average of $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August to $3.70/MMBtu in 4Q25 and $4.30/MMBtu next year. Rising natural gas prices reflect relatively flat natural gas production amid an increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports." The  rising gas prices and falling crude oil prices in 2026 should bring crude oil to its lowest premium to gas since 2005. (Reuters) The EIA sees gas inventories EOS this year at 3.912 TCF. That forecast is up 40 BCF from last month's estimate. The Desk's survey has EOS forecast at 3.935 TCF. The EIA sees March 2026 EOS at 1.852 TCF; the Desk's survey this week is calling for storage to be 1.813 TCF at EOS in March 2026.

Momentum basis the DC chart has turned negative, as the current spot futures price is below the prior 6 days' highs. Resistance is seen at 3.130-3.131 and then at 3.186-3.187. Support at 3.021-3.022 has been pierced this morning with next support below seen at 2.960-2.964.

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