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- Natural Gas Update September 11,2025
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Overview
Natural Gas --NG is down 3.0 cents
NG futures are lower now after rallying overnight as some heat set to build across the Central U.S. The sentiment seen is that the "downside in gas prices in the near term appears limited due to forecasts for warmer US weather." Wednesday's selloff was seen due to some extent to be profit taking, as well as the drop in LNG feed gas demand, which still remains subdued today.
NG slipped Wednesday with many headlines touting the weaker LNG feedgas demand, which fell to a 3 week low, with volumes under 15 BCF/d at 14.79 BCF/d, according to Market News estimates. Today Thursday, Bloomberg sees feedgas volume at 14.56 BCF/d. August feed gas volume averaged 15.9 BCF/d. (Reuters) The large Sabine Pass LNG plant was said to be running at 69% of capacity on Wednesday. The facility has a capacity of 4.7 BCF/d; thus about 1.46 BCF/d was offline. (Celsius Energy)
Forecaster Vaisala said Wednesday that forecasts shifted warmer in the Midwest and East for September 15-19, with above normal temperatures expected in the middle of the US. Also, forecasts shifted warmer in the East for September 20-24.
The next day Henry Hub cash price on Wednesday was near $2.90, which was down 20 cents versus the prior day's price. This, we believe, contributed to the drop in the October futures, with the cash/futures differential widening to 11 to 15 cents favor of the futures from the prior day's flat/+5 cent futures premium.
The EIA gas storage due out today is expected to a show a build of 68 to 69 BCF as per WSJ and Bloomberg surveys. Last year saw a build of 36 BCF and the 5 year average build for the period is 56 BCF.
In LN NG options yesterday we saw the following in CME trading: In the October January calendar spread the $-1.00 / $-0.90 call spread traded for a cost of 2 cents to the $-1.00 call buyer. The open interest for these options saw the $-1.00 call drop by 3,000 lots and the $-0.90 call increase by 3,000 lots. In the October puts, 3,000 contracts of the $2.75/$2.55 put spread traded 2.55 cents. The December $4.75/$6.50 Call spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 8.4 cents.
Technically NG spot futures have negative momentum basis the DC chart. Support below is seen at 2.960-2.964 and then at 2.929-2.931. Resistance lies at 3.130-3.131.
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Disclaimer
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