Natural Gas Update September 15, 2025

Overview

Natural Gas -- NG is down 1.1 cents
NG futures are down slightly after trying to rally overnight. The GWDD forecast was lowered over the weekend, thus suggesting weaker demand. Rising production is also cited for the easing back of prices this morning.

Over the weekend, both the GFS & ECMWF near-term models trended milder with fewer GWDDs expected over the next 2 weeks. (Celsius Energy)

US domestic natural gas production is estimated 0.702 BCF/d higher today at 108.7 BCF/d after a dip to 107.98 BCF/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg data. Despite the fact that output has ticked back up in recent days, production in September is averaging 107.6 BCF/d so far, down from August's record level of 108.3 BCF/d.

NG prices settled a little higher for the spot contract Friday as weather services including Atmospheric G2 and Vaisala called for above-normal temperatures into late September, suggesting a potential lift in air conditioning demand and power burn.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Friday saw an unchanged amount.

CFTC data issued Friday showed that money managers covered some of their net shorts in the week ended Tuesday September 9. The net short total fell by 11,971 to 24,979 contracts. This was mostly due to longs being added.

Technically,  the October spot futures are holding up better again today than the contracts behind, as was seen in Friday's settlements. On Friday, the October contract was the only month that settled higher until November 2028. We suspect that this suggests short covering and or a less eager selling stance for the front month contract. Yet, momentum basis the DC chart remains negative and there is currently a double top in the October contract from Friday/today at 3.000 / 2.995. Above the double top, resistance lies at 3.062-3.065. Support comes in at 2.895-2.897 and then at 2.850-2.858.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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