Natural Gas Update September 18,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 3.8 cents
NG spot futures are lower as the market is expecting a somewhat bearish EIA storage number this morning. Also a slightly lower demand forecast for end of September weighed on prices late yesterday and into the overnight.  Additionally, U.S. gas production has ticked up today.

U.S. gas production is seen at 107.2 BCF/d, up from yesterday's output of 106.1 BCF/d, but down from the 30 day average of 108.43 BCF/d, as per Bloomberg data.

The Henry Hub next day cash natural gas was quoted 3.190 / 3.240 early Wednesday morning, with a trade then seen at 3.220. This is versus October futures at the time printing 3.146 / 3.151. This thus flipped the cash to a roughly 7 cent premium to the futures, which is up from the past few sessions, in which we saw the differential valued at flat. But, Balance of the Month (Balmo) cash prices were quoted only up 1.5 cents on the day, versus the Henry Hub next day cash being up 11 to 13 cents. Thus, we conclude that the market by valuing the Balmo only slightly higher was discounting next day cash staying strong and seeing other factors that are believed to weaken cash prices going forward, such as the EIA data due out today.

The EIA gas storage data due out this morning is seen as a build of 78 to 80 BCF as per new wire surveys. This is versus last year's build of 56 BCF and the 5 year average build of 74 BCF.

U.S. natural gas producers will face challenges meeting surging demand from new LNG export projects, according to Expand Energy's CEO, cited by Platts. He warned that the U.S. industry is not fully prepared for the expected 12.2 BCF/d increase in LNG export capacity by 2027. This would bring total capacity to 27 BCF/d — a 12% rise in overall US gas demand. Feedgas demand has already climbed to 16.1 BCF/d and is forecast to hit nearly 22 BCF/d by 2027.

In a reversal of what was seen last week, the October futures contract on the CME was the only month to settle lower Wednesday in front of the February 2027 contract. 

Technically the rally seen earlier in the week has caused the DC chart's momentum to turn positive, although for now price action looks to have created a trading range. Upside resistance comes in at yesterday's high at 3.165-3.168. Above that resistance lies at 3.198-3.199. Support lies at 3.051-3.056, which is being tested as we type. Below that support comes in at 3.021-3.022.

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