Natural Gas Update September 19,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 4.6 cents at 2.893
NG futures are lower continuing the downturn seen yesterday as the EIA storage number disappointed and some cooling degree days were lost in the 5-10 day forecast, as per NatGasWeather.

The EIA storage data disappointed with a "hefty" build as one analyst put it. The 90 BCF build was 10 to 12 BCF larger than forecast. Total storage grew to 3.433 TCF. This is +204 BCF/+6.32% versus the 5 year average. The deficit to last year has almost been wiped out. This year's storage is -4 BCF/-0.12% versus last year's level.

NatGasWeather describes the upcoming period of weather as follows: " The market is "pretty much out of time for late summer heat to inflict damage," the forecaster says, adding that starting in October gains in demand for cooling are often offset by loss of heating demand. "Weather patterns will soon need to be cooler than normal to be considered bullish." (WSJ) Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted cooler for the middle of the U.S. for September 23-27, and cooler weather will persist over the eastern two-thirds of the US for September 28-October 2.  (Barchart)

The Cove Point, Maryland LNG plant operated by Berkshire Hathaway, has seen its feed gas demand volume shrink by 0.7 BCF/d since Monday as it enters its usual 3 week maintenance period. (NGI)

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 102.8 BCF/d this week to 103.4 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up 0.2 BCF/d from those seen the day before.
 
EU storage is now 81% full, down from 93.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 87.6%. The expectations for cooler weather in northwest Europe over the coming week might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season. (ING) Spot TTF futures prices have stabilized in the low Euro 30's. Those prices have been in a mostly sideways pattern for the past few weeks.

Technically momentum for the NG spot futures is negative, basis the DC chart. Next best support for the NG spot futures lies at 2.869 and then at 2.774. Price action this week signals that prices over 3.10 are not sustainable. Resistance is seen at 3.021-3.023 and then at 3.106-3.107.

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