Natural Gas Update September 22,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 2.9 cents at $2.917.
NG spot futures are up slightly having traded in a tight range overnight even as low weather demand and high storage inventories make for a negative undertone. Summer officially ends today.

Celsius Energy pointed out on Friday that the NG share of the power burn for electricity seen during the first half of September lags behind that seen in the prior 2 years. Currently the share is about 42.5% --versus 2024's share of about 47% and 2023's share of about 46%. Celsius Energy commentary suggests that the selloff in NG futures seen Thursday and the weak EIA number released Thursday both were impacted negatively by the reduced power burn.

The CFTC  Commitment of Traders report issued Friday showed money managers reduced their net short positioning by 1,692 contracts to a total of 23,288 contracts in the week ended Tuesday September 16.

Early estimates seen for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a build of 77 to 78 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 49 BCF and the 5 year average build of 76 BCF. Thus, the deficit to last year's inventories would turn to a surplus with this week's forecasted data.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count was unchanged in Friday's report.

Russia still covers more than 10% of EU's gas imports, roughly half of which comes via LNG," ANZ analysts say. This news comes as the latest package of EU sanctions calls for a ban on all Russian LNG imports as of Jan. 1, 2027. (WSJ)

Technically momentum remains negative basis the DC chart. Support for the spot futures comes in at 2.857-2.859, which was almost tested with today's low being 2.862. Next support below lies then at 2.774. Resistance comes in at $3.00. 

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