Natural Gas Update September 23,2025

Natural Gas--November NG is down 2.5 cents at $3.072
NG futures are down again as shoulder season slack demand, lower feed gas volume to LNG export plants and ample storage though continue to weigh on the market.

NGI commentary says that the weather forecast has "delayed a heating demand uptick". On top of that is the prospect for this week's EIA gas storage data to see the deficit to last year's inventories turn to a surplus.

Feed gas volume today is 14.44 BCF/d with the Sabine Pass and Cove Point facilities taking less gas. This is offset somewhat by increases to the Corpus Christi and Freeport plants. Today's total feed gas volume compares to volume of 15.74 BCF/d seen last week.

The options for the expiring October contract saw some heavy volume traded on the CME on Monday. The October $2.60/$2.50 put spread traded 1.2 cents. The October/ November 1 month -25 cents/-20 cents call spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 0.7 cents. The October $2.75 puts were seen involved in several different trades. Among them, the $3.00/$2.75 put spread saw trades at a cost between 11.3 and 15.5 cents. Also, the $2.75 puts traded at a cost of 1.7 to 2.0 cents against the October futures priced at $2.93 in a .15 delta ratio. The October $2.75 put open interest fell by over 7,000 contracts in CME data for Monday's activity.

One analyst wrote the following yesterday regarding the soon to expire October futures:" with resistance at $2.92 and $2.98 a push back above $3 doesn't appear to be in the cards before October rolls off the board." His view is in keeping with the resistance we see for the October futures at $3.00. The October spot futures with Monday's close had seen prices fall by 9.57% in the past 4 sessions. 

The November futures contract, now the highest volume traded month, has a mean reversion set up with Monday's settlement below the lower bollinger band on the daily chart. That band lies today at 3.088. The November futures has fallen today to a new contract low of 3.060. Support we see below that from DC chart data comes in at 3.046-3.051 and then at 3.008-3.014. November resistance is likely at recent lows at 3.170-3.174 and then at the highs of the prior 2 sessions at 3.233-3.241. Today, the rest of the winter strip of November to March has tested the lower bollinger bands on their respective daily charts. The October spot futures tested our support at 2.774 today with an overnight low of 2.772.

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