Natural Gas Update September 25,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--November NG is up 7.7 cents at $3.210
NG prices are higher today with LNG feedgas demand having picked up of late and a warmer weather forecast seen Wednesday, as per one commentary. The October options expiration today is possibly drawing some buying with some nearby out of the money strikes on the CME having sizable open interest. 

Feedgas deliveries to U.S. LNG facilities today are seen at 16.12 BCF/d, recovering from a low of 14.82 BCF/d on Monday September 22,  when flows to Sabine Pass dropped by about 0.4 BCF/d because of maintenance on the Creole Trail Pipeline, according to reporting from Kpler and Market News estimates

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as a build of 74 to 75 BCF as per new wire surveys. This compares to last year's build of 49 BCF and the 5 year average build of 76 BCF.

WSJ commentary from Wednesday cited the prospect for feedgas volume to rise over 16 BCF/d by year's end as being supportive. Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture owned by energy giants QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, has secured approval from the U.S. DOE to export previously imported LNG from October 1, as it nears the launch of the first liquefaction train in Texas. Venture Global LNG’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 3.4 BCF/d of gas on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.

In the Dallas Fed survey issued Thursday,  respondents said that they expect a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.30/MMBtu at year-end 2025. The natural gas price is expected to rise to $3.35 in 6 months, to $3.53 in one year, to $3.94 in 2 years and in 5 years it is seen at $4.50, as per the survey. “We have begun the twilight of shale,” one executive was quoted as saying in the Dallas Fed report. “The U.S. isn’t running out of oil, but she sure is running out of $60 per barrel oil.”

The October NG / LN options expire today. The nearest call strikes with any sizable open interest on the CME are the $2.95 call with 11,031 contracts open at last night's close. The $3.00 call strike had 28,311 contracts open as of last night. On the put side, the $3.00 strike had 42,460 contracts open. Thus, combined the $3.00 strike has over 70,000 contracts open--making it a possible magnet for the settlement of the October futures today. The $2.90 put had 11,284 contracts open. The $2.75 put strike had 421,786 contracts open last night.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 104.7 BCF/d this week to 101.8 BCF/d next week.  The projection for this week of 104.7 BCF/d is up 0.9 BCF from last Thursday's demand estimate.

Resistance for the November NG futures comes in at 3.233-3.241 and then at 3.305-3.306. Support lies at 3.093-3.096. Momentum basis the daily November chart has turned positive.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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