Natural Gas Update September 26,2025

Overview

Natural Gas--November NG is down 1.0 cents at $3.185
November NG futures are down higher with weather demand being slack, even as gas production has dipped, while the feed gas volume for LNG export has risen of late.

One weather forecaster says: "over the next 15 days, we are looking at "light to very light temperature-driven demand ". 

U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated today at 107.71 BCF/d compared to the 30-day average of 108.23 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

Thursday's rally was boosted by strong LNG feedgas volumes, as well as some buying likely due to the October contract's options expiration, and also due to a stronger cash price. The next day Henry Hub cash price rose to $2.91 to $2.94. This was up 6 to 9 cents roughly versus Wednesday's price. This helped October futures advance as cash and futures are expected to converge as the futures goes to expiration.

The EIA gas storage data seen Thursday showed a build of 75 BCF, which was in line with forecasts. Total storage rose to 3.508 BCF. This flipped the inventories to a surplus versus last year's level. Storage was thus 22 BCF (+0.63%) over year ago level. Storage was +203 BCF / +6.14% versus the 5 year average.

One note seen regarding the strong feed gas volume for export seen Thursday was :" Were the Cove Point LNG plant not down for annual maintenance, flows would have been above 16.8 BCF/d, within 0.5 BCF/d of record highs."" The volume seen Thursday was 16.12 BCF/d, as per the Market News estimate.

On Thursday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 105.6 BCF/d this week to 102.7 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up a total of 1.8 BCF/d versus those seen Wednesday.

Today is the last trading day for the October NG futures.

Technically, the November NG futures have positive momentum. For now, though, the NG futures are having an inside trading day versus yesterday's price range. Resistance for the November futures comes in at 3.258-3.261, which is yesterday's high. Above that resistance lies at 3.305-3.306. Support comes in at 3.170-3.175 and then at 3.093-3.096.

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