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- Natural Gas Update September 3,2025
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Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 8.7 cents
NG futures are higher today after eking out a small gain in the 2 day session that settled Tuesday. The stronger LNG demand and weaker production outpaced the weak weather demand that exists at current with no real overwhelming heating or cooling demand nationally. One unconfirmed report we have heard is of a 3.5 BCF/d drop in production overnight. The production drop is being attributed to some degree to pipeline maintenance.
Under pressure from stout production and fading cooling demand, Appalachian natural gas spot prices have been cut in half since mid-July. With the shoulder season looming, analysts are watching for signs of producer restraint. (NGI)
Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated 0.665 BCF/d higher today at 74.03 BCF/d after falling to the lowest since mid-June at 67.4 BC/d on Aug. 31, Bloomberg shows. Today's demand compares to the previous five-year average of about 67.8 BCF/d.
Tuesday's early pullback in futures prices was described by NGI as "the start of meteorological autumn is bringing back the bears who had gone into hibernation ahead of the holiday weekend."
The strength of LNG exports was emphasized in the news that August saw a record level, as plants exited planned maintenance programs and Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility continued to increase output, preliminary data from financial firm LSEG showed. August exports totaled 9.33 million metric tons, beating the previous monthly record set in April of 9.25 million tons and higher than the 9.1 million tons exported in July, according to LSEG data.
On Tuesday, the next day Henry Hub cash gas was quoted 2.700/2.770 in the early AM. This was down from last Thursday's quote of 2.910-2.935. But, October futures were barely changed
between the 2 quotes. Last Thursday the October futures were trading 2.930 against the cash, while on Tuesday the October futures were printing near 2.920 against the more than 15 cent weaker cash.
We saw 2 trades in NG options on the CME Tuesday of note. The November $4.50 call was bought for a cost of 2.4 cents versus selling of delta November futures at $3.27. And we saw a calendar spread option (CSO) in the October November spread. The -30 cent put was bought versus selling of the -50 cent put for a cost of 5.6 and 5.8 cents. The October November spread settled -32.6 cents Tuesday on the CME.
Technically NG futures have positive momentum with the spot futures today rising to the best level seen since August 8th. Resistance at 3.095-3.098 has been tested today with a high of 3.106. Next resistance above is seen at 3.145-3.148. Support lies at the overnight low at 2.960-2.964 and then at the key support area at 2.850-2.858.
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