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- Natural Gas Update September 5, 2025
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Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 1.0 cents
NG prices are up slightly in the spot futures as some late heat is seen in the South. For now the spot futures are having an inside trading day versus yesterday's price range.
The EIA storage data showed a build of 55 BCF, which was in line with news wire survey estimates. Total storage rose to 3.272 TCF. This is +173 BCF / +5.58% versus the 5 year average, but -73 BCF/-2.18% versus last year's storage level.
Natural gas delivered 46% of US electricity last week, underscoring its central place as renewables face seasonal and supply hiccups. And with the Pacific Northwest expecting only modest hydropower output in 2025, grids may have to rely even more on gas, amplifying demand even if short-term forecasts seem calm. (Finimize.com) A colleague offered the following observation: "NG is just setting its narrow trading range for September, which historically is the low production month for renewables. Throw in some early HDDs in Chicago, nuclear refueling and potentially early winter weather forecasts and we probably are trading sideways this month."
U.S. power developers are planning to sharply boost natural gas and hydropower generation capacity and are cutting back on plans to add new solar and wind farms, according to recent data on the U.S. power capacity pipeline. This is a function of the changing landscape that the Trump administration has created. The power developers have a capacity total now that is more than twice as large as what was in developer pipelines a year ago. Plans for renewable power capacity have fallen by nearly 17% from a year ago. But, some of the apparent cuts to the renewables development pipeline can be explained by the fact that some of the capacity that was previously being built is now operational. Reasons for the cuts to the renewable pipeline include the growing wait times for new power assets to get connected to local grids, and the rising costs for parts and materials - especially for wind farms. Gas capacity's share of the overall U.S. power system will remain more than twice as large as any other power source, at 44%, once construction and pre-construction work is complete. Once projects that are currently under construction and in pre-construction are complete, both wind and solar will have a roughly 14% share while coal power's share will drop to around 12%, from current 15%. (Reuters)
There is now a double top on the spot NG futures from Wednesday/Thursday at 3.131 / 3.130. After now being up for 7 sessions in a row--is it time for NG to ease back?? That may depend on if the cash price eases back below $3.00, as its strength and the production drop seen this week have supported the NG futures. One comment seen Thursday said :" The October contract has surged into technically overbought territory for the first time since June, hinting at rising momentum and a possible uptick in volatility." The DC chart shows an overbought condition. Above the double top at 3.130/3.131, resistance comes in at 3.186-3.187. Support lies at 3.011-3.014 and then at 2.960-2.964.
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