- Liquidity Natural Gas Daily
- Posts
- Natural Gas Update September 9,2025
In partnership with
Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 4.7 cents
NG futures are higher, buoyed by an underlying positive sentiment as warmer temperatures in mid-September are seen boosting demand. Also supporting prices are supply concerns/a tighter supply/demand balance, which seems to be somewhat a function of pipeline maintenance.
Repairs have been extended for an extra week at a gas compressor station in Liberty County, Texas, on the Kinder Morgan pipeline, known as NGPL, which is reducing gas flows between Texas and Louisiana. The repairs are now seen lasting until next Monday. This news likely helped boost the next day Henry Hub (HH) cash price Monday, which rose to $3.10 from Friday's price near $3.06. But the October futures seem to have gotten ahead of themselves yesterday. When the HH was valued near $3.10 early in the AM, the October futures were printing near $3.19. This +9 cent differential was up from the flat price for the cash versus futures seen late last week.
Natural gas prices also found support Monday after forecaster Atmospheric G2 said forecasts shifted warmer over the eastern two-thirds of the US for September 13-17 and trended warmer across the southern and central US for September 18-22.
The EIA gas storage data due out Thursday os seen as a build of 70 to 74 BCF as per early estimates seen. This compares to last year's build of 36 BCF and the 5 year average build of 56 BCF. Average total solar and wind output was down 7% for the reporting period. However, any incremental demand for gas-fired power generation was more than made up for by cooler temperatures. Overall, Lower 48 cooling degree days came in at 36, down 8 (18%) week/week. NGI adds :" Overall to date this injection season, weekly injections have averaged 11.5 Bcf more than the previous five-year average." End of injection season (EOS) inventories are thus seen at 3.944 TCF as per NGI. The Desk survey is calling for the EOS level to be 3.935 TCF. Te EIA last month projected the EOS to be 3.872 TCF, which would be 2% above the 5 year average. As of last week, inventories were 5.58% over the 5 year average.
We saw a flurry of activity in the Calendar Spread options (CSO) in Monday's activity. The October/ January $-1.00 call/$-1.50 put fence traded 5.3 cents 4,000 lots worth. 3,000 lots of the October/January $-1.30/$-1.15 put spreads traded at a price of 4.3 cents. This -$1.30/-$1.15 put spread was an initiating trade as per CM open interest data. The October/January NG futures spread settled at $-1.12, narrower by 1.2 cents versus Friday's price. The high price for the spread seen Monday was $-1.059. In the December/January CSO, the $-0.15/$-0.30 call spread traded 5.0 cents. Some of this 2,000 lot trade was an initiation of a position.
Technically NG has positive momentum that is overbought. Support for the spot futures lies at last week's double bottom at 3.021-3.022. Resistance comes in at 3.186-3.187 and then at 3.267-3.270. Today's spot futures price range so far is within that seen yesterday.
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
How 433 Investors Unlocked 400X Return Potential
Institutional investors back startups to unlock outsized returns. Regular investors have to wait. But not anymore. Thanks to regulatory updates, some companies are doing things differently.
Take Revolut. In 2016, 433 regular people invested an average of $2,730. Today? They got a 400X buyout offer from the company, as Revolut’s valuation increased 89,900% in the same timeframe.
Founded by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech reshapes the $1.3T vacation home market. They’ve earned $110M+ in gross profit to date, including 41% YoY growth in 2024 alone. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
The same institutional investors behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay backed Pacaso. And you can join them. But not for long. Pacaso’s investment opportunity ends September 18.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply